Trump and Putin: A pact against China?
- Ahmet S
- Mar 2
- 3 min read
The global power balance is shifting. With the war in Ukraine, China's economic rise, and an increasingly unpredictable U.S. foreign policy, a second Trump presidency could dramatically reshape the geopolitical landscape. My theory: Trump will escalate his confrontation with China but will try to bring Russia to his side in the process.
Putin could use this opportunity to break out of isolation and achieve his strategic goals. The biggest loser in this scenario would be Europe, caught between two major conflicts with enormous risks for its economy and security.
Trump vs. China: A Conflict in the Making
During his first term, Trump made it clear that he sees China as the greatest threat to U.S. dominance economically, technologically, and geopolitically. His trade war, sanctions against Chinese tech companies, and aggressive rhetoric showed that he has no hesitation in putting economic pressure on Beijing.
If he returns to the White House in 2025, it is highly likely that he will double down on this strategy. Higher tariffs, new sanctions against Chinese firms, or an even tougher stance on Taiwan are all realistic possibilities. However, such a confrontation would stretch U.S. resources. To maintain focus on China, Trump would need to neutralize another front...the one against Russia.
Why Trump Could Align with Russia
Russia is stuck in a draining war in Ukraine and crippled by Western sanctions. At the same time, its partnership with China is more of a marriage of convenience than a true alliance.
Trump might try to pull Russia out of China's sphere of influence by offering Putin a deal he cannot refuse. This could involve:
Cutting or ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine, which would make it difficult for Kyiv to continue fighting.
Lifting or easing economic sanctions on Russia, restoring its ability to trade with the West.
Weakening NATO, a goal Trump has repeatedly hinted at by questioning U.S. commitments to the alliance.
For Putin, such an agreement would be highly beneficial. He could shift the Ukraine war in his favor, rebuild economic ties with the West, and reduce his dependence on China.
How China Would Suffer
China’s current economic strength relies on stable trade relationships and secure access to raw materials. Russia is a key partner for Beijing, not only as an energy supplier but also as a geopolitical ally against Western dominance.
If Trump convinces Russia to distance itself from China, Beijing would face major setbacks.
Energy security would be at risk since Russia is one of China’s largest oil and gas suppliers. A shift in Moscow’s policy could disrupt China’s economic stability.
China would be more isolated in an economic war with the U.S. Until now, China has relied on Russia and other nations to counterbalance Western economic pressure. Losing Russian support would leave China more vulnerable.
The global power balance would shift, forcing China to face a united U.S.-led opposition rather than a divided West.
A weakened China would make it easier for Trump to escalate economic and geopolitical pressure, limiting Beijing’s ability to project power globally.
Why Europe Must Avoid a Trade War with China
For Europe, this scenario would be disastrous. If Trump strengthens Russia while intensifying his conflict with China, the European Union will face multiple challenges.
Ukraine would be left without crucial U.S. support, making it difficult to resist Russian advances.
European security would be compromised if Trump weakens NATO, forcing Germany and France to take on defense responsibilities they are not yet prepared for.
A trade war with China would devastate the European economy. While the U.S. can afford to decouple from China, the EU is far more dependent on Chinese markets and investments.
That is why I strongly believe Europe must not align with Trump in a trade war against China. The economic ties between the EU and China are too important to be sacrificed for Washington’s geopolitical games. Germany and the EU must pursue an independent foreign and trade policy, focused on stability and economic self-interest, rather than blindly following Trump’s confrontational approach.
Conclusion: A New Era of Geopolitical Risk
If Trump moves toward a closer relationship with Putin, the global balance of power will shift dramatically. Russia could escape its current isolation, Ukraine would be left vulnerable, and China would face increased economic pressure.
For Europe, this would create serious strategic challenges. The EU must develop its own geopolitical stance to avoid being caught between the U.S., Russia, and China. Above all, Europe must resist being dragged into an economic war against China. A pragmatic and independent foreign policy is the only way to navigate this emerging era of power struggles.